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-RESEARCH NOTES-
“The Populist Far Right Wave”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv22p9dl415o
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn087x77g1dt
Americanisation of British Politics:
https://twitter.com/danwootton/status/1807413108110938514?s=46&t=9kElRJSiqKDTeXsYxMuwvw
We’ve mapped out this containment manoeuvre to death in real time
https://www.youtube.com/@scrumpmonkey/streams
Three Scenarios:
Reform Does Worse Than Expected: No lasting Success but Farage’s publicity, as happened with UKIP and Brexit Party.
https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-quits-ukip/
Reform Does As is now Expected: Tiny foothold in parliament, but not seen as a credible opposition. Not much different from UKIP of the past.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/margate-ukip-greens-electoral-reform-farage
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/26/carswell-ukip-mp-farage-independent
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgk44k4mzxo
Reform Does Better Than Expected: Double Digits MPs and higher vote share than Tories.
Reform will either fade into the political background or merge with The Tories, the question is on what footing?
Pie in the Sky, 2029 election with Farage as main opposition will simply look like France today: a supposedly hard nationalist party expected to continue the neoliberal consensus government in the same way as Wilders and Meloni already have.
https://antipolitics.substack.com/p/meloni-world
Farage is not even pretending to be a “Hard Right” politician in even the way Melonio pretended to be. The idea that he “has to do this to be electable” is an indictment of electoral solutions.
“I’ve done more than anyone else to defeat the far right in Britain”
https://unherd.com/newsroom/nigel-farage-rassemblement-national-will-be-a-disaster-for-france/
The Tory Octopus:
You can’t kill the Tory party electorally, just like the Labour Party didn’t die:
The Tory Party is not the crayon drawing of democracy we imagine from year 8 civics lessons, it is a machine–a machine that interfaces with the vast machine of state.
It dispensed with its membership long ago, as have all political parties:
Financial Hibernation, cutting losses:
The Cameronite Singularity
“If the Tories move Right, they will be out for 20 years”
Party Politics is about patronage, The Tory Party especially so:
C.A. Bond, Nemesis quotes:
“No political change can be predicated on organic revolt from the ground up. Revolutions and popular movements emphatically do not rise to success without patronage, and anyone under illusions on this point would do well to compare the singular success of the Arab Spring
protestors to the complete and utter failure of the French “yellow vest” Movement. The yellow vest protests lasted significantly longer than the Arab Spring protests and covered a far greater area, and yet their impact has been inconsequential for the simple reason that one set of protests had patrons and the other did not.”
“The modern liberal order, an order revealed by Jouvenel as a hyper-centralised one that has been patronising cultural trends and political theories in adherence to this hyper-centralisation, has no incentive to offer patronage and institutional existence to a body of thought which exposes this process of power. It is a fallacious belief in the natural, anarchistic flowering of culture independent of logistical infrastructure, a belief propagated by this very same system, which allows this process to occur without the recognition of the system’s inhabitants that they are determining culture by their infrastructural support of specific bodies of thought.”
‘Governance’
Hat tip to semiogouge’s thread on governance vs government.
https://twitter.com/Semiogogue/status/1766022634104304063
Matt Goodwin is helping handle the reform campaign, we also have independent verification:
https://twitter.com/dg115511/status/1798653127970996668
P38 defusing:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/r0911_goodwin.pdf
Goodwin et al adopt the Blairite position that Britain’s status as a multi-racial nation is already a settled question, so their job is to manage these multi-racial conflicts through extra-bureaucratic measures. This is considered necessary to be a “serious political party” and thus the issue defused. This may in large part be why Reform, and the Tories, are engaging heavily in pulling in the Hindu / Sikh community.
Reform’s diverse candidates:
https://x.com/mayuranreform/status/1805214286207152288?s=46&t=9kElRJSiqKDTeXsYxMuwvw
As Reform moves away from a purely insurgent status and has to exist as a political party with sitting MPs bound by parliamentary standards, it will necessarily shed some of the “unserious populism” it currently engages in. Le Pen’s National Rally and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy have undergone this metamorphosis over the past decade into “parties fit for governance.”
POLITICAL REALITY
No one is coming to save you. We must save ourselves.
https://x.com/dg115511/status/1803391395878572282?s=46&t=9kElRJSiqKDTeXsYxMuwvw
Zero Votes?
“The Right” have been saddled with Democracy, many on “The Left” have already given up on it.
“Biden’s performance should make us grateful for the Deep State”
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