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RESEARCH NOTES
The Anglosphere & Europe, still loosely referred to as “The West” has had a series of permanently unpopular, but permanently in power elected leaders.
STARMER IS DONE!
https://x.com/inevitablewest/status/1876256818865020970?s=46&t=9kElRJSiqKDTeXsYxMuwvw
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Case Studies: Macron, Boris/Truss/Sunak, Scholtz/ Merkel, Trudeau.
Kier Starmer can survive being this unpopular for many years, as Macron did.
Macron had a 20-25% approval rating in 2018. He has a 20% approval rating now. He hasn't had approval over 35% since late 2022. He is still president of France.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2017/08/26/emmanuel-macron-finds-change-is-often-unpopular [ https://archive.is/iohEG ]
https://archive.is/MLx35 ←today
Trudeau was much the same: https://angusreid.org/trudeau-tracker/
Merkel and Sholtz show similar trajectories:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoJDwHIXMAAhKvy.jpg
These domestically hated ladders are able to maintain an image abroad due to negative news being filtered out for other approved “popular democracy leaders.” https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/09/22/merkel-will-end-her-tenure-in-office-as-a-leader-who-was-internationally-popular-during-tumultuous-times/
The inverse is true for populists, who are often unpopular with international audiences.
“Political Capital” and hegemony. [slide]
Political capital for establishment figures is constantly refilled and rebuilt, as it was for Macron. There is a constant feed of propaganda because the current elite exercise hegemony over all areas of life.
A populist is just a politician who has not yet burned through all his political capital.
Another component is that a populist must also never appear to be “in power” or he will be blamed for the permanent agenda put forth by the consensus of the elite class.
The absurdity of portraying Trump as an insurgent force whilst he is the candidate of the GOP and now for the second time president is in aid of keeping this perception. For his first term he was portrayed as “betrayed by the system.”
French Election & “Cordon Sanitare”and German Grand Coalition
When a populist party appears in Europe for example, all other parties collude to keep them out of power. The populist party is then either compromised [Meloni] or Arrested [Golden dawn]. The political system, seen as a top down hegemony, burns through the remaining political energy of the established parties whilst building the political credibility of the supposed insurgent party.
Managerial Democracies are run by a permanent bureaucracy, so this false cycling of elites needs to create political capital and get people to “buy in.” The final, begrudging removal of unpopular leaders is an important release valve and allows them to have the sins of the political class put on them.
French Election & “Cordon Sanitare”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg3m98j3zpyo
https://x.com/NomosEvents/status/1810232102450872439
German Grand Coalition
The Lockdowns & political capital.
Macron, Trudeau & Merkel: all leaders who had seen a previous collapse in popularity & whose premiership was given an extra buffer of credibility by the obedience instilled during lockdown.
This effect was extreme in most "Social Democracies" & showed how a sceptical public can & will buy back in.
https://morningconsult.com/form/approval-rises-for-world-leaders-amid-pandemic/
Tony Blair & the Myth of Popular Consent. [slide]
Cycled out of elected roles & cycled into appointed roles / NGO roles that arguably have more power.
Buying time & tiered containment.
“We'll get them in 2029!”[slide]
In a myriad of ways we don’t deal with the question of are our leaders, or political bodies fit for purpose. Rather we deal with questions of popularity. All playing into that bottom up political illusion.
Popularity can be used as a backstop against more strident political actors, this goes for and also against what people like us want. Strong leaders engage in action against the will of the mass for the maintenance of the polity and its resources. This means at any and all times, the media, polling orgs, intelligence community, the permanent bureaucracy, can all act in tandem through the medium of “popular sentiment” to halt and besmirch executive actions.
The Permanent Bureaucracy: “a machine that hates you.”
What Happens to genuine right wing insurgent parties:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/greece-golden-dawn-neo-nazi-prison-sentences
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/nov/02/bnp-members-barred-teaching
Would you even want a popular leader?
(Something to consider at the end)
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